{"id":7206,"date":"2020-05-03T17:14:05","date_gmt":"2020-05-03T22:14:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.realfoodhouston.com\/wp-files\/?p=7206"},"modified":"2020-12-23T12:44:07","modified_gmt":"2020-12-23T18:44:07","slug":"the-cost-of-the-economic-shutdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.realfoodhouston.com\/wp-files\/2020\/05\/03\/the-cost-of-the-economic-shutdown\/","title":{"rendered":"The Cost of the Economic Shutdown"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"SARS-CoV-2\"<\/a>

SARS-CoV-2<\/p><\/div>\n

There are many costs resulting from the economic shutdown to prevent lives being lost to covid-19. It is essential that we balance the cost of preventing the spread of the illness with the cost of the economic shutdown.\u00a0 Are the lives on only one side worth saving? <\/span><\/p>\n

Vaughn Cordle, CFA, Founder of Ionosphere Capital LLC, has analyzed the costs of multiple approaches to managing the risks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mortality Rates<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

Understanding the mortality figures for deaths caused by covid-19 is critical to the evaluation.\u00a0 The following is the basis for the analysis by Ionosphere:<\/span><\/p>\n

Covid deaths are exaggerated because of how they are reported and many are reported as covid deaths without being tested. Moreover, there is a financial incentive to exaggerate the numbers. Even the CDC has a much lower covid death count when properly coded and estimated–37,308 as of May 1<\/strong>.\u00a0\u00a0This number is much lower than the 60,300 estimated by IMHE researchers on April 20. \u00a0Number of deaths reported by the CDC are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. <\/em>[emphasis added]<\/span> (source<\/a>)<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Related Deaths<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

The number of deaths resulting from the economic shutdown will likely increase by adding drug-overdose deaths and suicides caused primarily by unemployment.\u00a0 I would add the impact of social distancing and isolation from family and companions to unemployment.<\/span><\/p>\n

Assuming a phased-in recovery beginning in mid-May, the analysis estimates \u201c33,743 drug overdoses and 7,324 suicides, which sum to 41,067 layoff-related deaths.\u201d\u00a0 If the plan is followed, the lives lost because of the shutdown could exceed lives lost to the illness by 68%.\u00a0 A lockdown that lasts throughout May or longer would increase the estimated deaths proportionately.\u00a0 Cordle concludes, “The point where layoff-related deaths exceed covid-19 lives saved is when we need to consider whether going on will be costlier than going back.”<\/span> (source<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\"Layoff<\/a>(chart source<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n

Economic Impact<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

Ionosphere estimates an “average household burden of $33,442 and $27,848 per employed due to the $4.3trn cost to save covid-19-related lives.” The analysis estimates that the public debt of $4.3 trillion from deficit spending and public debt caused by the current economic shutdown \u201cwill result in higher taxes, reduced social spending, lower job growth, GDP and living standards.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Most people, who are rightfully concerned about illness and death from covid-19, are not, however, considering the deaths and cost burden that are caused by the economic shutdown.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Worldwide Starvation from Economic Shutdown<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

Many countries in the world are already facing starvation and famine.<\/span><\/p>\n